Sudan's President Bashir charged with war crimes

U.N. agencies and foreign embassies in Sudan remained on high alert amid rumors that militias, both for and against the government, might use the announcement as an opportunity to attack foreigners or government institutions in Khartoum. But aside from the noisy protests, the capital remained largely peaceful.

Bashir promised to address the country Thursday morning.

Human rights activists heralded the decision as a victory against impunity.

"The court made clear that heads of state are not beyond the reach of the law," Juan E. Mendez, president of the International Center for Transitional Justice, said in a statement. "It is telling the world that government leaders can and should be held accountable for their actions."

But some are betting that Bashir will be able to weather the storm, albeit as a weaker president of a paralyzed government.

"Bashir will not be able to continue as a normal president for long," said Eltayeb Hag Ateya of the Peace Studies Institute in Khartoum. "He’ll become a burden to everyone around and this will snowball, leaving him crippled."

But at the same time, Ateya predicted that Bashir could survive because Sudan’s ruling party is ill prepared to select a replacement and many worry that the country could fall into the hands of Islamic extremists or the military.

"The real issue is not Bashir," Ateya said. "It’s the succession question. The ruling party will never agree."

Earlier this week, the 65-year-old Bashir, who seized power in Sudan in a 1989 coup, struck a defiant tone during a speech at the opening of the $2-billion Merowe Dam, which he boasted was built without help from the Western world. Dancing, smiling and waving his walking stick, Bashir opened the dam’s floodgates before cheering crowds, who burned prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo in effigy.

Bashir said the international community could take the arrest warrant, "dissolve it in water, and drink it."

U.S. and European officials are hoping that the warrant will either force Bashir to make reforms or drive him from power. The U.S., France and Britain blocked Sudan’s efforts to have the ICC case deferred for one year.

But political experts here say hopes for a "soft landing" in which the regime’s inner circle decides to sideline Bashir are misplaced.

"It’s wishful thinking," said Alfred Taban, editor of an opposition newspaper. "If anything, the ICC is going to entrench Bashir rather than weaken him."

In recent months, Bashir’s government has silenced most opponents, through payoffs or intimidation. The ICC has also stirred nationalist and anti-Western sentiments, with many Sudanese calling the case an attack on the country’s sovereignty.

Others worry that the ICC case will doom efforts to reach a peace deal over Darfur by emboldening rebels. Two rebel groups have promised to increase their attacks against the government in the aftermath of the arrest warrant, calling Bashir’s government "illegal."