KHALIL NOURI: AFGHANISTAN: AN INEVITABLE KARZAI DYNASTY RULING

By: Khalil Nouri STAFF WRITER FOR VETERANS TODAY

AN INEVITABLE KARZAI DYNASTY RULING

Subsequent to Hamed Karzai shamelessly stealing the Afghan re-election; he agreed that his achievements and standards would be higher – and the Obama administration vowed that he will honorably and ethically keep his word, but the Afghan president once again deceitfully proved his greed for power.

He has reportedly granted himself powers over a key electoral watchdog, a move likely to aggravate relations between his government and NATO allies fighting insurgents in the war-torn country.

In a presidential decree published last week, Karzai gave himself the power to appoint all five members of Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC).

The commission, helped expose massive fraud in last year’s presidential poll, forcing Karzai into a second vote.
However, under a previous law, the United Nations appointed three foreign experts to the five-member commission, which would work alongside Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC). The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (IHRC), and the Supreme Court of Afghanistan appointed the remaining two members.

This deceiving resumption cannot come at any time worse when the American, NATO and Afghan forces are wholeheartedly battling the insurgency and shedding their blood in the name of peace in Afghanistan. But Mr. Karzai is boldly interested only in his own political power, which is immensely destructive for the U.S. NATO operation and Afghanistan’s democratic process. In fact, Mr. Karzai’s failure to build a credible, honest and even modestly effective government is the Taliban’s number one recruiting apparatus.

NEXT PREDICTABLE DECEITFUL MOVE:
A DYNASTICAL APPROACH?

The new decree will help Karzai ensure that the parliament after elections in September will be dominated by his political allies. With a future parliament on his side, Karzai ultimately would be able to amend the constitution so that he can run for more than two elected terms if he chooses to do so. That would allow Karzai to run for election again in 2014, and once that door is opened, in due course, he could declare himself head of the Afghan state for life.

On hindsight, if Karzai for some reason is unable to amend the constitution to allow himself to run for a third elected term, a sympathetic parliament on his side could help him extend his term in office by supporting a declaration of a state of emergency—a move that could delay elections indefinitely.
At last with his allied constituents; warlords, drug cartel and accumulated deep-pockets, he can easily buy—former Russian president, (now vice president) Vladimir Putin did the same for his friend Dmitry Medvedev by winning the Russian presidency— an election for a family member or a crony who could protect Karzai in a safe heaven when his term ends.

One may argue as why go through another presidential election when the last one was a fiasco?
In fact, that is a valid argument, and Afghanistan never had an election in that fashion before.
Moreover, election process in Afghanistan will always be a mess and a recipe for ethnic tension and civil strife.

For centuries the head of Afghan state was chosen by the grand assembly of elders (Loya Jirgah), and the selected one was for life.
This process is still well suited for today Afghanistan, but undoubtedly Mr. Karzai is not the man for the job. He neither can lead nor can be accepted by the majority of Afghans. Therefore, he is considered a hindrance to U.S. NATO goals in Afghanistan.

IS THIS AN AFGHANIZATION OR ANOTHER DECEPTION?

“This is the beginning of Afghanization and it will continue” as declared by Karzai’s deputy spokesperson. He also said, “The Afghan government for long wanted to Afghanize the electoral process and ten days ago, the cabinet ratified the amendment and the president endorsed it.”

As an Afghan born, I believe, Afghanization is a good thing, but with the current state of fragility in Afghanistan, the country cannot endure to stand on its feet. Conversely, this seems to be another path for creation of a sound fraudulent system in Afghanistan.

In fact, the whole electoral machinery having been installed by him personally, and this is alarming that even Afghan parliament is unable to force the president to fire ministers.

There are signs that the West is not careful, and this could be moving towards an unintended dictatorship, and hindrance for creation of a legitimate Afghan state. Also, it could be a futile effort to win the war on terror as well as the hearts and minds of the Afghan people.

Hamed Karzai’s lack of deliverance in the past nine years is plain, and hence, the collective patience of NATO alliance is increasingly running out. As a result, the fractious coalition could be dismantled precipitously and set a victory for insurgency.
Recently Dutch government announced soon to pull out of Afghanistan, and next year Canadians to do the same. Therefore, the Afghan mission could be winding towards a failure by emboldening the insurgency further.

In final, Karzai’s recent decision about the electoral process is not only a continued betrayal towards his nation, but continued crises of credibility, which are also clear recipes for downward spiral in Afghanistan.

In that regards, has it occurred to anyone in the White House national security circles or the pundit class that the ongoing loss of American and Afghan lives is wasteful and immoral?
Moreover, what will the court of public opinion think?
Also, how a fragile NATO alliance could be cohesive against the cause in Afghanistan?
At last, what are the repercussions for a collapsed Pakistani government and the regional chaos?

I believe another change of strategy for Afghanistan is foreseeable in a near future.

Khalil Nouri is the cofounder of New World Strategies Coalition Inc., a native think tank for nonmilitary solution studies for Afghanistan. www.nwscinc.org

Khalil Nouri

Khalil Nouri was born in an Afghan political family. His father, uncles, and cousins were all career diplomats in the Afghan government. His father was also amongst the very first in 1944 to open and work in the Afghan Embassy in Washington D.C., and subsequently his diplomatic career was in Moscow, Pakistan, London and Indonesia. Throughout all this time, since 1960’s, Khalil grew to be exposed in Afghan politics and foreign policy. During the past 35 years he has been closely following the dreadful situation in Afghanistan. His years of self- contemplation of complex Afghan political strife and also his recognized tribal roots gave him the upper edge to understand the exact symptoms of the grim situation in Afghanistan. In that regards, he sees himself being part of the solution for a stable and a prosperous Afghanistan, similar to the one he once knew. One of his major duties at the beginning of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in 2002 was advisory role to LTG Franklin Hegenbeck. He has worked closely with the Afghan tribes and his tribal exposure is well tailored for unobstructed cross-cultural boundaries within all Afghan ethnicities. He takes pride in his family lineage specifically with the last name “Nouri” surnamed from his great-grandfather “Nour Mohammad Khan” uncle to King Nader-Shah and governor of Kandahar in 1830, who signed the British defeat and exit conformity leaving the last Afghan territory in second Anglo-Afghan war. Khalil is a guest columnist for Seattle Times, McClatchy News Tribune, Laguna Journal, Canada Free Press, Salem News, Opinion Maker and a staff writer for Veterans Today. He is the cofounder of NWSC Inc. (New World Strategies Coalition Inc.) a center for Integrative-Studies and a center for Integrative-Action that consists of 24- nonmilitary solution for Afghanistan. The function of the Integrative-Studies division (a native Afghan think tank) is to create ideas and then evolve them into concepts that can be turned over to the Integrative-Action division for implementation. Khalil has been a Boeing Engineer in Commercial Airplane Group since 1990, he moved to the United States in 1974. He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering, and currently enrolled in Masters of Science program in Diplomacy / Foreign Policy.