Libyan Updates – From the VT War Desk

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UPDATED TODAY

Take a bird’s eye view of the war desk in real time.It’s been a busy few weeks, and an even busier last few days since the No Fly Zone stage has kicked in.

Graphic footage of children and babies in Misrata. Even children are not safe from Gaddafi Forces.”

WARNING GRAPHIC

UPDATES MARCH 25, 2011`

1524:

We are catching our breath now and wanted to give you a peek at how some of the information flows in  here that determines our editorial focus, an inexact science for sure.

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We have been a bit out of water on the Libya story in this regard. For Iraq, Afghanistan, and even for Pakistan, we have a huge network of contractor contacts who have flowed in and one of those zones.

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UPDATES March 25th (afternoon) EST…from BBC morning highlights:

UK Defence Secretary Liam Fox says British Tornado jets took part in armed reconnaissance missions over Libya last night.

“The Tornado aircraft launched a number of guided Brimstone missiles at Libyan armoured vehicles which were threatening the civilian population of Ajdabiya,” he said.”

"Libyan Rebel Special Forces"
Benghazi Rebel Special Forces Gunners
Jim Dean Reports:   This photo of rebel technicals shows regular army soldiers, probably special forces ones from the missing Benghazi Brigade finally going into the front line fighting with the militia so they can get some regular army on the job training…something which should have been going on for weeks now.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told the BBC a few hours ago that the coalition intervention in Libya has been effective. “It has deterred further aggression of military campaign by Libyan authorities and it was able to protect the civilians in Benghazi and some other areas. But we’ll have to see. I believe that the superiority of the military power will prevail.”

 The BBC’s Kevin Connolly in Benghazi says the UK’s use of Brimstone jets on Ajdabiya overnight – designed to destroy targets without causing collateral damage – was exactly the sort of attack the rebels have been demanding. “Ajdabiya is the first town they will have to take if they are ever to make the long march from Benghazi to Tripoli, and they have been making no impression on Col Gaddafi’s better equipped and more professional forces,” he says.

Royal Air Force Toronado
BBC defence and security correspondent Nick Childs says the RAF Tornado strike on military vehicles near Ajdabiya last night was part of a significant operation involving several fighter jets and repeated attacks. “There have been a number of British strikes but they have tended to be long-range against significant major targets. This is the first of this type in which the Tornadoes have gone after forces on the ground.”

Guardian correspondent Martin Chulov tweets: “#Libya rebels not alone in seeking weapons. Jet #Gaddafi sent to Cairo before NFZ carried a general, who implored help from #Egypt’s mil.”

The BBC’s Ben Brown near Ajdabiya says rebels have been pouring reinforcements into the area. “One commander said if there were more coalition air strikes they could take Ajdabiya today,” he says, “but that may be wishful thinking”.

 Mohammed in Misrata told the BBC that while it was quiet in the city last night the situation there remains dire, with no electricity and a lack of doctors and medical supplies.

 UPDATES MARCH 24th (afternoon)… by Jim W. Dean  …from BBC live…doing a great job as they usually do.

1953: AFP says Libyan state television is reporting that “civilian and military sites in Tripoli and (the eastern suburb of) Tajura” have come under fire from “long-range missiles”.

1938: Hundreds of people in Libya disappeared after being rounded up by security forces in the past few months and may have been tortured or executed, UN human rights experts say. The “wave of enforced disappearances” could amount to a crime against humanity, they add.

Gaddafi Armor
1914: Ban Ki-moon says there is “no evidence” Libyan authorities have maintained a ceasefire. (Thank you Bunky. Now we all know).

1855: Libya In Me tweets: “Alarabiya: Tripoli expecting air strikes on Libyan State TV / GOD please let this be true, PLEASE! #libya #feb17” …(TV has been classified and command and control target in the past).

1852: Just to recap: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says Nato will take over the Libya operation “within one or two days”. His statement follows President Obama’s spokesman expressing confidence that the US will be able to hand over control “within days”. No comment so far from Nato… (Great news if this is true…cross your fingers…I suspect that Obama has put them on the spot…”we are standing down this weekend, either you guys take over, or you can explain it to the world”.)

1838: A BBC contact in Misrata says the central hospital there has been turned into an army base by pro-Gaddafi troops. She says no civilians are there and all the surrounding houses have been evacuated. It is not possible for us to confirm the claims.

1830: More on that statement from Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu: He has told TRT television that Turkey’s demands had been met and Nato will take command of the Libya military operation. Nato needs the approval of all its members and Turkey had set conditions. So far there is no independent confirmation of the statement.

From a Libyan blog – Feb 17th Youth Movement:

8:29PM: At least 109 people have been killed in the rebel-held city of Misurata and more than 1,300 wounded in a week of attacks by forces loyal to Gaddafi, a doctor in the city told AFP news agency. The doctor working in Misurata’s state hospital said on condition of anonymity:  Attacks by Gaddafi forces since last Friday have killed 109 people and wounded 1,300 others, 81 of whom are in serious condition.On Thursday alone “four martyrs fell because of sniper fire,” he added.

*******

Folks, this just in from a VT staff member’s trusted Libyan source on the London media report of possible retribution terror attacks being planned by Gaddafi supporters.

My contact comments on this piece…    https://www.veteranstodayarchives.com/2011/03/24/mi-5-reports-gaddafi-london-terror-plans/

1. Most Libyan expats are exiles running away from the regime. I’ve NEVER met a pro-Gaddafi expat who’s not either an intelligence agent (there are a few of these in London – they spy on Libyans, not the UK. If I know who they are I’m sure the British police will know even more.)

2. Any terror plots would be done by Gaddafi agents, not expats. In these circumstances, when his future is extremely uncertain, I doubt even agents would risk themselves abroad for him

This is a very sober assessment of the situation in Libya – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12842303

 My best friend killed at 5 p.m. yesterday. ****

UPDATES MARCH 24rd (morning)…  by Jim W. Dean

International Criminal Court - The Hague

1515:   The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor has told the Associated Press news agency that he is “100%” certain that his investigation into attacks on Libyan protesters will lead to crimes against humanity charges against Col Gaddafi’s government. (Something for the Libs to chew on.)

 1506:  Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak has said in Tel Aviv that the Arab uprisings will prove positive in “long-run”. (Surprise here in a way…but with chaos theory…not)
 

1444:  Quote of the day: “The job of dictator is now a high-risk job” – Alain Juppe, French Foreign Minister

 
1427:   The BBC’s World Have Your Say programme  tweets: “We’ve just spoken to a rebel in Misrata. Gun fire clearly heard in the background. He says they’re fighting 11 tanks in the city #Libya.” (Earlier reports had them coming back in during the night…an aggressive move here, showing no fear of daytime attacks)

 
1405:Libyan state TV continues its pro-Gaddafi coverage, emphasizing its claim that coalition air strikes have targeted innocent civilians in Tripoli and elsewhere, and people were now invited to funeral prayers for these “martyrs”. The allies say civilians have been spared in the air raids. (The BBC is showing the Misurata hospital wounded tour clips, narrated over, from the Feb 17th site, a very good counter to Tripoli’s invisible wounded.)

 
1342:A Tripoli resident, unnamed for obvious reasons, tells BBC’s News hour: “I’m not exaggerating if I say tens of thousands of young people are arrested. Look, we cannot even now stay close to each other, three four people, for a couple of minutes talking or chatting, I mean it’s very danger[ous].   ( This is a regime overthrow thread here…deeming this an attack on civilians…where regime overthrow is the only way to ‘protect them’. If Europe takes control this will never happen.)
****
 
Other misc…
 
A report that the Benghazi Army is only around 1000. Ouch!! I would hope that would mean the trained troops but I don’t think so. With that small of a professional force they would have then integrated with the militias as noncoms and offices to prevent unnecessary casualties, which the militias are taking. 
 
If they had his force sitting back on their butts, and letting these militia people die by trial and error, it is criminal negligence in my book, simply unforgiveable in a desperate fight where the morale of  green troops is a do or die item. Still hard to believe the Benghazi army troops had no military unit communications equipment…or could not get any to use after all this time.
 
 
More regular looking army troops in video clips this morning…military binoculars…new weapons with sand protection on them.
 
 Benghazi civilians had ‘thank you’ march. Seems that ‘we don’t want any foreigners on the ground’  is losing it’s appeal. They are asking openly for close air support, ‘advisors’, and heavy weapons. There is nothing like a steady stream of dead and wounded returning from the  front to make folks a bit more open minded.
 They are openly asking for regime change, now. This was an organized march so it is coming from the National Council.
****
 
 
Media coverage seems to be totally ignoring the mercenary fighters…and with that being the lever that could provide for outside troops to neutralize that advantage. The Israelis were Johnny on the spot helping Gaddafi bring in the mercenaries using their ‘private security’ front companies.
 
Tripoli spokesman last night referring to Misurata, mentioned no fighting in there other than snipers, which he said were hoodlums. So the hint there is that they will disavow any atrocities they have done as collateral damage. the fault of the rebels not being able to ‘maintain security. In fact he ordered schools closed for today and tomorrow due to threats to civilians from allied air attacks…(cute). These Tripoli folks have a sense of humor.
 ***
 
 Repub attacks on Obama for no exit strategy…total hypocrisy and cheap exploitation when people are dying. We have had no exit strategy for the Mideast…or our entanglement with Israel…or supporting dictators in the region…and the Repubs have never put one on the table. And now they want a game plan from Obama??? They opened themselves up to a flank attack here as complaints about abysmally poor leadership are in season now. [End update]. ****
 
There are also long time personal and professional relationships with past military, civilian and sometimes opposition leaders.

Getting information much easier where you have networked to tap into.With Libya we did not have this so we had to monitor the wire services and hunt down Libyan ex-pats who still had communications in country.

With the phone and Internet service down, even that was very difficult. There are some satellite phones sprinkled around but at $20 a minute it is hard to do live interviews. It’s called…scrambling. The BBC Libya live desk has been a great breaking news source…a mix of tweets, emails…raw input usually, but  mixed in with official announcements.

The phones are ringing with whatever our correspondents are picking up and getting relayed what we are trying to find out. We also try to monitor any ‘spin’ on the story from parties with a long record of doing such.

Wednesday: 03-23-111829 GMT:  More detail now on Nato’s failure to agree on taking over command of the Libya operation.

Gaddafi Land
Reuters quotes a Nato diplomat who says there problems remained over the relationship between enforcing the no-fly zone and military operations to protect civilians, and how broad the mission should be.

1806:The BBC’s John Simpson, who has just arrived in Tripoli, reports: “As you drive in from Libya’s western border with Tunisia, there are no signs of bombing but plenty of signs of the recent fighting between Col Gaddafi’s forces and rebels.

Houses and shops have been hit by artillery or tank shells from the fighting last week. There’s often tension at the many roadblocks along the way. At one of them, we were held for 40 minutes while other vehicles were carefully searched.

Any petrol the searchers found in them was poured out onto the ground and there was a lot of angry shouting. In the town of Zawiya, only about 20 minutes’ drive from Tripoli, there were many more signs of recent fighting in the outskirts, and our car was diverted a long way to the south to avoid the centre of town.

The streets were filled with cars in Tripoli this afternoon and there were plenty of children in the schools, but it’s clear that the tension rises as night falls.”

1727:Why are Libyan rebels – backed up by the coalition air strikes – failing to make any significant offensive advances? This is the issue the BBC’s defense correspondent Nick Childs is looking at in details in this article.

1722:Abdul Rahman in Zintan has given an update to the BBC’s Arabic service: “Zintan was shelled twice today, once around midday and again in the afternoon. Each time the shelling lasted for about an hour. There are about 30,000 to 40,000 people in Zintan and the city is under siege. Nobody can come in or out. We are starting to have shortages in water, food, fuel and medicine.”

1717:Libya’s official al-Jamahiriyah TV is reporting that “crowds of citizens – men, women, young people and children – now continue to pour into Bab al-Aziziya (Col Gaddafi’s compound) in Tripoli to join the masses that have been sitting in there for days”.

Help is Too Late for These Libyans
1709:Snipers from pro-Gaddafi forces killed 16 people in Misrata on Wednesday, rebel spokesman Hafiz Ghoga is quoted as saying by Reuters.

1700:Malnidawi tweets: “Public opinion in the west is not pro another long, costly war in #Libya, that is why rebels should advance.”

1653: Mr Hague says: “At the conference we will discuss the situation in Libya with our allies and partners and take stock of the implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973 (2011).

We will consider the humanitarian needs of the Libyan people and identify ways to support the people of Libya in their aspirations for a better future. A wide and inclusive range of countries will be invited, particularly from the region.

It is critical that the international community continues to take united and coordinated action in response to the unfolding crisis. The meeting will form a contact group of nations to take forward this work.”

1645:More eyewitness accounts from Misrata. Abdul, a local resident, tells the BBC’s Arabic Service: “If the NFZ had not been imposed Gaddafi would have slaughtered us. What happened yesterday in Misrata was a massacre. Civilians were hit with tank shells and sniper fire. Around 40 were killed.

Gaddafi Forces Still Attacking
We do not want foreign troops on the ground but we need the aerial protection to continue and we need weapons to fight Gaddafi’s forces. Gaddafi’s forces are now taking positions inside Misrata and it is difficult for the allied forces to target them. We are in effect their human shields.”

1642:More comments from US Rear Admiral Gerard Hueber, who has been holding a news briefing at the Pentagon. He now says that there is no evidence that pro-Gaddafi forces are pulling back from the towns of Misrata and Ajdabiyah – Reuters.

1633:US Rear Admiral Gerard Hueber (see also entries 1617 and 1610) says there are no reports of civilian casualties due to the air strikes by the coalition forces – Reuters.

1629: The New York Times is running an analysis article entitled “Tribes With Flags”. Author Thomas L. Friedman argues that Libya belongs to “more artificial states with boundaries drawn in sharp straight lines by pens of colonial powers that have trapped inside their borders myriad tribes and sects who not only never volunteered to live together but have never fully melded into a unified family of citizens”.

Mixed in with wire service monitoring we are trying to work on missing pieces of the story or some missing background information that the mass media seems to be missing for some reason. Here is a sample of  a very good one that came in:

(1) The UN security Council decision to protect Libyan civilians is the right decision. The protests in Libya started peacefully on 15 February,but within hours the Gaddafi regime started to use mercenaries and battlefield weapons against unarmed civilians. Thereafter the protests took on a different character, with civilians arming themselves for self-defense and to push back Gaddafi’s thugs.
 
(2) No one in Libya, absolutely no one, wants US, British, French or NATO troops on the ground. There’s a huge qualitative difference between protection from the air and ground forces. In any case:
 
Flat and Open Land
(3) Ground troops will not be needed. Libya is largely a flat, open desert.The main populations centres are on the coast, linked by straight roads.This makes Gaddafi’s forces extremely vulnerable.
 
(4) As someone who is very familiar with the Libyan “military”establishment, I am astonished when I read reports about Gaddafi’s “elite units”. There is nothing elite about them, unless you want to compare them with unarmed or hastily-armed and untrained civilians. The US diplomats who referred, in the cables published by WikiLeaks, to the 32nd (“Khamis”) Brigade and other special protection units as “elite” got it all wrong.

These units are better armed and equipped compared to others in the country, but they are, in all honesty, a rabble consisting of thugs. They are not real soldiers in any sense, apart from knowing how to pull a trigger, load an artillery piece and drive a tank. There commanders are, at the very best, absolute trash. As for the regular Libyan army, this has been deliberately neglected and weakened by Gaddafi because he didn’t trust them.
 
(5) Gaddafi’s “elite” units can be regarded to all intents and purposes as comprising mercenaries. Their “commanders” are not only super-thugs selected for for being brainless yes-men, but also are also fair-weather friends. The moment the kitchen gets too hot, they will melt away and pretend they never had anything to do with Gaddafi.
 
(6) Gaddafi himself is a coward. If he hasn’t already gone into hiding, he will do so soon. His friends abroad are Mugabe, Campaore of Burkina.  Gbagbo of Ivory Coast.
Gaddafi Air Force is Down
 
(7) A no-flay zone over Libya is a relatively straightforward affair. All That’s needed is about 10 warplanes on permanent patrol and 30-50 backup in nearby bases.
 
(8) The Libyan air force is equipped with mostly obsolete Russian-built MiG-23s and Sukhois, and a small number of MiG-29s and French-made MirageF1s. The pilots are poorly trained, the planes are badly maintained or not maintained at all and the avionics in them are basic.
*****
 
 
 

 

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Gordon Duff posted articles on VT from 2008 to 2022. He is a Marine combat veteran of the Vietnam War. A disabled veteran, he worked on veterans and POW issues for decades. Gordon is an accredited diplomat and is generally accepted as one of the top global intelligence specialists. He manages the world's largest private intelligence organization and regularly consults with governments challenged by security issues. Duff has traveled extensively, is published around the world, and is a regular guest on TV and radio in more than "several" countries. He is also a trained chef, wine enthusiast, avid motorcyclist, and gunsmith specializing in historical weapons and restoration. Business experience and interests are in energy and defense technology.