DESERT STORM 90-91: DO WE REALLY HAVE ALL THE FACTS AND DATA

The Question is:

Are we really getting all the Data we need on the occurrence of Cancers in Gulf War Veterans from 1990-91 Operation Desert Storm?

The data that I provide below was presented  to the VA RAC on GWI and I also supplied it to Senator Burr on the hill and to the Senate and House VA Committees.  I knew his wife was active in the Cancer Society and thought since he was on Senate VA Committee that it would possibly be of value to have him take on this issue. 

The data was provided by a VA Source. 

It is interesting that there were a few stories of current troops OIF being sent home with aggressive Cancers but the ones writing about the issue were not exactly welcomed to file reports.

More to come on this issue.

GULF WAR VETERANS CANCER DATA
DATA FROM 1991-1994
PROVIDED BY ANONYMOUS SOURCES WITH HIGH RATING OF RELIABILITY
PRESENTED BY DENISE NICHOLS

A:  THYROID CANCER MORTALITY DATA 1991-1994
FACTS:  Thyroid Carcinoma occurs in less than 5% of nodules
INCIDENCE:  26,000/YR OR 10 PER 100,000
EXPECTED DEATH:  1500/YR OR 0.5/100,000
OVERALL CURE RATE IS HIGH
ACTUAL GULF WAR VETERAN DEATHS FROM THYROID CANCER BY YEAR
1991—0
1992 —3  (2 <25 YEARS OLD)
1993 —4  (1<25YRS; 1 25-34YRS; 2 35-44YRS)
1994—9   (4<25YRS; 3 25-34YRS; 3 35-44YRS)
NOTE STATS EXPECTED IN 18-34 YR GROUP IS 0.1 PER 100,000 FOR 600,000 WOULD BE 0.6
RESULTS
FOR THYROID CARCINOMA MORTALITY RATE FOR THE GULF WAR VETERANS LESS THAN 25 YR OLD IS 4.0.  THIS IS 4 TIMES THE EXPECTED DEATH RATE FOR THIS CANCER IN THIS AGE GROUP.
DEATH RATE
FOR <25 YR OLD :  25 OR LESS CASES/YR PER 300,000,000
1.0 TO 1.5 PER 10 MILLION
4 ½ DEATHS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN POPULATION OF 30,000,000
GULF WAR POPULATION 600,000
ODDS RATIO     0.000011 STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT

B.  TESTICULAR CARCINOMA FACTS
RARE DISEASE   5,500 NEW CASES/YR
OVERALL INCIDENCE  1.5-2.0/100,000
RARE DISEASE < 2/100,000
Highest Age Specific 20-34 yr
DEATHS   0.2/100,000 or 1.2/600,000
MORTALITY TESTICULAR CANCER GULF WAR VETERANS
1991   2 (1 IN 18-24 YR; 1 IN 25-34 YR)
1992  16 (6 IN 18-24 YR; 5 IN 25-34 YR, 5 IN 35-44 YR)
1993  63 (18 IN 18-24 YR; 38 in 25-34 YR; 7 in 35-44 Yr)
1994  43  (11 in 18-24 YR; 32 in 25-34 Yr)
Note:  Expected Number of Deaths for yrs 1991-94 would be 30/600,000
Mortality Testicular Cancer Gulf War Veterans By Year 
1993  shows 2.1 times the expected death rate
1994 shows 1.45 times the expected death rate.
Testicular Cancer Mortality By Age Gulf War Veterans
1991   1in 25-34 age group expected 1.2
1992    5 in 25-34 age group  4 times expected
1993   total 16– 5<25; 10 (25-34); 1 (35-49)      13 times expected
1994    total 11   still over 9 times expected

C.  LEUKEMIA INFORMATION
Disease of white blood cells.  Abnormally high number of white cells are produced by the bone marrow and lymphatic tissues.
Over the last 30 years, research has shown that 95% of patients with leukemia have an acquired genetic defect.  The defect is a translocation (one piece of genetic material moved to another piece of genetic material).  The general divisions of leukemia are dependent upon the type of cells that are proliferating.  The cell types are lymphocytes and myelocytes.  Each type of leukemia, lymphocytic and myeloid is divided into acute and chronic.
Acute lymphoctic leukemia is a disease of the young and old.  75% of cases of acute lymphocytic leukemia(ALL) occur in those younger than 15 years of age.  Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) accounts for 10,000 new cases per year.  The number of new cases of ALL are 4,000 per year.  Thus 1,000 cases of ALL are among adults.  A fascinating aspect of ALL disease is the age distribution in adults.

It has been observed that of the adults, (1,000) per year, there is an age distribution.  Of the occurrence of ALL.
In the Less than 25 age group, only 2% of 1,000 adults have ALL
In the 25 to 34 age group, 5% of 1000 adults.
In the 35 to 65 age group, 85% of 1,000 with ALL is seen
At 1,000 adult cases of ALL per year, ALL in adults becomes a RARE Disease   0.3 to 0.5 per 100,000 or 3.0 per 600,00.
Number of Cases of ALL for Persian Gulf Veterans
1992       1
1993        12
1994         13

THUS FOR 1993 and 1994, THE NUMBER OF ALL IS FOUR (4) TIMES THAN EXPECTED.
NUMBER OF DEATHS
From ALL and CML is more than expected.  There are 15,000 deaths from ALL per year.  For a population of 600,000, 3 deaths are expected.
For ALL the years 1991 to 1994, the Persian gulf death rate is 3.0.  For CML, the number of expected deaths is 850 per population or 2 per 600,000.  In 1993, the number of deaths from CML was nine(9) and for 1994, the number of deaths was seven(7).  Thus, in 1994  the number of deaths from CML is 3-4 times expected.

Myeloid Leukemia
Primarily a disease of the elderly.  Myeloid leukemia is divided in acute and chronic.  In chronic myeloid leukemia, 5,000 new cases are expected per year
Age distribution is
 Less than 25     2% of 5,000 or 0.3/600,000
25 to 34 age  10% of 5,000 or 1.0/600,000
35 to 44 age  11% of 5,000 or 1.0/600,000
45 and over  75% of 5,000
CML
One case per 600,000 is expected for adult CML in the less than 25 age group and one case per 600,000 is expected in adults with CML in the 25-34 age group.
Persian Gulf Group
1992   11 cases (under 25), 6 cases (25 to 34), 2 cases (35 to 44)
1993    7 cases (under 25), 10 cases (25-34), 3 cases (35-44)
1994  2 cases (under 25). 0 cases(25-34), 0 cases(35 to 44)

PERSIAN GULF INCIDENCE CML
Results:  The incidence of CML in the Persian Gulf Group is 6-10 TIMES THE EXPECTED RATE IN THE UNDER 44 AGE GROUP.