Ghani’s National Consensus and Karzai’s Proposed Loya Jirga

Nazar Mohammad Mutmaeen
Afghan Writer and Political analyst based in Kabul for VT

However, the disputes between Ghani and Karzai is in increase and it is about to come out to the media. The internal disputes between the Communist parties (Khalq and Parcham ) were going on while they had power on hands; however, their governments were so week. Hence, these disputes had faced their Communistic regime to become failed from
inside.

The Ghani’s Unity government has a lot of problems in its mechanism; the most critical of them were the opposition of former Mujahedeen and dissolving the government as a result of Karzai’s consent.

Ghani was able to prevent the establishment of the powerful opposition of Mujahedeen by the leadership of Ustad Sayyaf; of course, Karzai was backing Ustad Sayyaf and Ghani’s opposite side. After the
establishment of Union combined of eight former Jihadi groups announced support of Ghani; Sayyaf, gradually, became convinced in order to deal with Ghani under the banner of Sobat “Stability” or the
Mujahedeen Council, then.

Now, as some of the members of Karzai’s team stood on Ghani’s side and some others are on their way; it would have positive impact on Ghani’s team but not as great as Ghani and his team think of.

Karzai has took some fundamental steps toward overthrowing Ghani’s government; one of them is the union of former Provincial Governors who still have influence in their provinces and areas to put pressure on Ghani’s government in different times in order for his government to become weaker and for the people to lose their trust in the government as well.

Karzai has a lot of proponents in both upper and lower houses, this is also considered as one of the main pressures on Ghani’s government.

A large number of the Civil Societies are established during Karzai’s administration and the most of their leaders are not satisfied with Ghani’s government; perhaps, they would back the proposal of Karzai in
order for a Loya Jirga to be invited.

The important point is that it is not believed that Ghani would fulfil the promises he has given to former Mujahedeen; perhaps, a lot of them would return to Karzai eventually, then.
Dr. Abdullah believes that he is being marginalized; and a lot former leaders and commanders of the North Coalition are dissatisfied with him and Ghani tries to have them on his side and Younus Qanouni, Bimillah Mohammadi, Amrullah Salih and some others are example of this in the near time. So, Abdullah thinks that he is going to lose and perhaps, he, in the future, would stand on Karzai’s side as result of
India or Russia’s intercession.

The most important thing is that Karzai has made good relations with China and Russia during his Presidency. He has good relations with India from the very beginning, Iran believes in Karzai more than Ghani and Pakistan has also recognized that their programs with Ghani are not going as well as they were expected.

As the American 2016 Presidential Elections are coming and if the Republicans won the elections, the game would be turned in the benefit of Karzai because they would not be consent with the choice of the Democratic Party that had supported Ghani or perhaps, Ghani would compromise with them and accept the staying of American forces and every kind of their demands, then.

Ghani wants to fail the plan of Karzai for inviting the Loya Jirga, the traditional gathering of representatives from across Afghanistan, by establishing a National Consensus. Ghani would try to gather some leaders who would accept the demands of the government and, through receiving privileges, participate in the National Consensus’ meetings. There would be some leaders of former Mujahedeen, some tribal elders that still support Ghani and/or the leaders that Ghani would convince them by providing privileges to them. Apparently, the opinions, ideas and thoughts of the people from National Consensus would be asked regarding country-related issues; however, I do not think this plan would be executed because only the National Security Council of the Afghan government has the authority to execute the plans.

Karzai wants to invite the Loya Jirga, and as result, to make its mem bers to declare that the present Unity government is failed and itis not viable anymore. The Loya Jirga would announce this government as dissolved and a new leader would be named for the leadership of the government, the leaders of the Unity government would be requested by the Loya Jirga to surrender the power to the new leader.

As Karzai cannot invite the Loya Jirga officially and as the present government is also legally not capable of inviting the Loya Jirga because the term of the members of the Parliament is ended and the leaders of the government underestimated the Constriction themselves, so there are some obstacles that the law does not permits them to do so. Therefore, Karzai would try to invite the Traditional Loya Jirga.

From now, the proponents of Karzai say that the Unity government has collapsed in the public opinion, another government should be established instead; they prepare the public opinion in order to not oppose the Loya Jirga invited by Karzai and even to participate in it.

The aim of the Karzai’s proponents from expressing that they believe in government and law, do not want dispute with the leaders of National Unity Government (NUG) and prefer understating is that they want the NUG to leave the power and transfer it to the team of Karzai.

It is obvious that the government will oppose Karzai if he invites the Loya Jirga; however, it is the plan of Karzai’s team from the very beginning. At first, it wanted to invite the Loya Jirga jointly with the government and convince Ashraf Ghani to do so. Then, Dr. Anwarulhaq Ahadi told Karzai that you are not the winner in the Loya Jirga; if you invite the people, 30% of them would be the proponents of Ghani, 30% would be of Abdullah’s, 30% would be selected from the ordinary people and only the remaining 10% would be yours; so, you would not be the winner in such a combination of the Loya Jirga. However, Ahadi had told them that, for now, the best solution is that the elections should be done for the second time.

As the people lost their confidence in the elections, and perhaps, the present security situation would also not let the elections to be done, therefore, Karzai tries to invite the Loya Jirga without having the agreement of the government; as a result, the government would oppose this Traditional Loya Jirga, then.

The first point is that if there were not the representatives of the Taliban and Hizb-I Islami Party of Hekmatyar in it, its results would be similar to the Bonn one Conference, then. The second point is that this time they will appoint the successor of President Ghani and they will decide on making an interim government and an acting
administration or another form of a mechanism of the government because Dr. Abdullah considers himself as meritorious for this position than others. It is also important that whether the International Community would support the decisions of this Traditional Loya Jirga or not?

The establishment of the National Consensus or invitation of the Traditional Loya Jirga will not solve the problems of the Afghan people because the armed opposition would be marginalized and their representatives would not be presented in one of these mechanisms, the war would be continuing, Afghanistan would be the ground for Russia and America’s rivalries, also, the rivalries of Pakistan and India would be going on in the soil of Afghanistan and there is possibility of Saudi Arabia and Iran’s rivalries in Afghanistan, too.

If Karzai wanted peace and security to be maintained in the country, he had plenty of chances during his near-decade long rule; but he did not want the peace to be made with the armed opposition and the war to be ended. Now, the people believe that neither Karzai nor Ghani are committed to peace; Ghani does political efforts in order survive his own power and Karzai does it for returning to the power.

The best way is that it should be thought that how can we rescue ourselves from the presence of foreign forces in the country, how can we take advantage of the America and Russia’s rivalry instead of letting them to turn Afghanistan to the ground of their rivalries? How can we take great advantages from the rivalries of India and Pakistan, and also of Iran and Saudi through considering the national interest of Afghanistan in the region?

These all are possible after the peace is made with armed Taliban and Hizb-I Islami Hekmatyar; the peace which should not be considered as surrendering, the peace in which the neighboring countries should not receive any privilege; so, the leaders of NUG and Karzai should become committed to a truthful peace.

At the end, if Ghani still did not show commitment to peace, perhaps, the internal disputes in the government and Karzai’s opposition would provide the Taliban with the opportunity to seize some provinces; and at that circumstances, the Taliban would insist on war and the suspended process of peace would become delayed to an uncertain time, then.

Wishing a Peaceful, Self-reliant and United Afghanistan