“Two Entwined Red-Lines” IDF Intelligence Directorate on Syria, April 29, 2013
A long time ago, Israeli Prime Ministers discovered that their governments are dysfunctional. They are large and plagued with coalitional interests. The temptations to publish secret deliberations by ministers who know that they cannot be fired are significant. Thus, they created the “Cabinet” a small and informal body of ministers who meet regularly to take decisions delicate issues. Ministers wishing to keep their place in this exclusive body are forced to remain silent.
On April 28, 2013, there was a 4-hour long meeting, which according to official sources was the first one of the new government to deal with the War in Syria. This came after in the meetings of previous weeks, the new members of the Cabinet, Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett and Gilad Erdan were exposed to a series of lectures aimed at updating them on national security assessments. The decisions taken were not published. However, a significant part of the IDF Intelligence Directorate assessment was published, in an attempt to manipulate public opinion.
IDF Intelligence Directorate Expects the USA to Attack Syria
Two days before that, Hebrew media reported “USA finally accepts the IDF evaluation”, regarding the Syrian use of chemical weapons. Apparently, neither claim was true. Syria didn’t use such weapons and the USA didn’t accept the Israeli manipulation. Also then, Israeli officials encouraged the USA to attack Syria in the name of Israel. It seems that the Israeli government forgot that it has an army equipped with American weapons. Brave Netanyahu prefers to sacrifice the sons of others.
On April 28, Former Mossad Director Meir Dagan (he recently survived a liver transplant in Belarus no other country agreed to treat him) said during the Jerusalem Post Annual Conference in New York that Bashar al-Assad didn’t sanction the use of chemical weapons. Dagan may have committed many war crimes along the years, but he is not a fool. He understands that the claim that Assad used chemical weapons “doesn’t hold water” (Hebrew idiom for a false argument, like a bag full of holes). Yet, the IDF wants an American Holy-Democracy War on Syria.
Aman is the Hebrew acronym for the Intelligence Directorate; it is one of the largest three intelligence agencies operated by the state (the others are the Shin Beth and the Mossad). The largest IDF bases belong to it, some of them operate together with their American counterparts. On April 29, much of Aman’s proposed plan for an American War on Syria were published by Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper closely related to the Shin Beth. The newspaper cited Brigadier General Ytai Brun, Head of Aman-Research, the most strategic part of this organization.
Understandably, he couldn’t speak for the actions of an army belonging to a different country. Yet, even the details published are important, since they are directly related to the survival of 75,000 Americans and millions of people in the Middle East.
Israel’s Road to Damascus
“Two Entwined Red-Lines”
Chemical Weapons Sites in Syria according to Israel Top 4 are production sites, other 2 are warehouses The assessment is odd. It attempts to create an unclear reality which would allow to easily find justifications for yet another Western attack on innocents. Right now, the main problem is that the red-line endlessly cited by Western media, namely the use of chemical weapons, would not be crossed by the Syrian government. Thus, Aman has redefined the issue as “two entwined red-lines.” It claims that beyond the use of chemical weapons, there is a second line, the Syrian “lose of control of its chemical weapons depots and production sites.”Aman explained the American reluctance to attack Syria. An attack may lift the Syrian self-restrictions on the use of such weapons, promoting what it was openly aimed to avoid. Moreover, a Western attack may end in the destruction of the bases were the weapons are produced or stored, creating a cloud of poisonous gas that would be unpredictable. Israel may become then the victim of its own machiavellian plot. Another worrying option is that as soon as such an attack starts, the Syrian Army forces securing the sensitive sites may abandon them, leaving a chemical bounty ready to be picked up by anybody wandering in the area.
Moreover, Aman fears that such an attack would free Hezbollah and Iran to act openly in the area against Israel. This statement came in the same week the IDF destroyed a drone near Haifa. On October 6, 2012, an unmanned aerial vehicle was destroyed near the Dimona nuclear plant. If these activities are increased, the IDF would face hard times. It intercepts them with F16 fighters, sending two against each target. It is easy to transform this into a financial war. A drone is cheap; F16s are expensive toys.
The Intelligence Directorate is worried. It even mentioned that the plans of war assume that Israel and the USA know exactly were Syria keeps its weapons, mentioning “at least 18 sites,” but that this may not be a realistic claim. There are reports that Assad has removed chemical weapons depots from areas in which the Western mercenaries are especially active. Everybody even remotely acquainted with the Syrians knows that this is probably the reality. The Syrian Army is one of the strongest in the Arab World. In regular days, it is substantially stronger than the IDF, which relies on American weapons to balance the equation.
“The Jewish Brain Invents Patents”
The title of this section is an Israeli idiom used to denote a wild act, usually by the government. A purposeful violation of the law, for example, the forced sterilization of Ethiopian women would enter this category. Right now, Aman is “inventing patents.” The last part of the published recommendation to the government describes the desired way of solving what Israel considers a problem. It is based on what Aman defined as a “boots-on-the-ground” attack.
75,000 American soldiers from commando and intelligence units would be accompanied by experts on chemical weapons and soldiers from unmentioned countries, though Israel obviously excludes itself from the task force. Aman also evaluated “the USA would be reluctant since its army is still wounded by the two wars initiated by President Bush” (Iraq and Afghanistan).
Very nice Brigadier General Ytai Brun; wise words. Now please take a look at your shoulder. There is a funny thing attached there; it shows a sword and an olive branch intertwined. It means that you are an IDF brigadier general. You are a soldier and are supposed to fight for your country. Please, stop “inventing patents” and sending others to die for you. We refuse to do that.
Roi Tov is a graduate—among others—of Tel Aviv University and the Weizmann Institute of Science. In addition to his memoir, Tov is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Molecular Physics and other scientific journals. He won various travel writing and photography awards.
In his writings, he tries to reveal life in Israel as a Christian Israel Defense Force (IDF) officer—from human rights violations to the use of an extensive network of underground agents. He was recognized first as a refugee and subsequently as political prisoner of Bolivia.