The New Silk Road will be nothing like the old one
Crimea, China and Alternative Trade Routes
… by Konstantin Penzev, …with New Eastern Outlook, Moscow
The seven golden domes of St. Peterburg
[ Editor’s note: One of the reasons that growth is so key to a nation’s future is that it creates demand for infrastructure projects, which in developed countries increases the velocity of money when the components and labor are local.
Modern US problems with this model have included the large presence of many Mexican workers on American construction projects prior to our collapse.
For third world countries, we find huge equipment imports associated with big projects, where the local labor money stays, but no demand for the bigger ticket machinery items is ever created. When the projects are done, the anticipated ripple effect is a fizzle, as the profits generated are further spent on imports of parked offshore.
China has weathered the world recession with continued growth because of its continued domestic development and also its well-diversified export portfolio, the envy of the world actually.
Thus, the US elites recast this success as a national security threat to the US’ declining economy, and decided to use its forward military deployment to threaten China’s trading routes, those going to China with energy, and then its ocean-carried exports.
Washington’s pitiful spin-meistering that this policy is driven by commitment to protect its security partners from some growing Chinese military menace is laughable, if it were not so sad. Unlike the US, the Chinese do not establish military bases along their trade routes as the price of doing business with them.
Why would China want to project a future military threat that would divert potential trade revenues into the hands of the military industrial complex (America) versus expanding trade with them? The whole idea is a fraud, and even worse… stupid. It has pushed China toward expanding faster their westward land route, creating closer political bonds with Russia with the huge energy deals and the smaller former Soviet states with limited growth potential.
Their being along the new Silk Highway puts them in the middle of all of that long term development… and the stability that comes with it. China will have a strategic transportation corridor that can be easily defended with the ascendancy of missiles as the defense weapons, more secure than the sea and cheaper to move goods. Konstantin will fill you in on the details, as he has done his homework… Jim W. Dean ]
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– First published …July 3, 2014 –
Trade routes
The fact that China needs not only to diversify routes and sources of energy, but it is also not a secret they need to diversify alternative routes for finished products.
What is the problem here? There are long-established and equipped sea routes connecting the coast of China through the Malakssky Strait, the Indian Ocean, the Strait of Suez, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Strait of Gibraltar and finally on to Europe, one of China’s main trading partners.
This is exactly how trading with China occurs, for example, Germany, through the port of Hamburg. The latter is one of the largest ports in the world and second in Europe by cargo.
As for the route from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, it passes through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits and closes at the largest cargo port, Odessa, Ukraine, Hence, here quite a trivial question arises: why President Yanukovych need to fly in December of last year to Beijing in order to negotiate with the Chinese on the construction (the latter acted as an investor) of a deep sea port in the Crimea, which at the time was still a part of Ukraine?
On December 5 of last year, Ukraine’s previous government signed in Beijing a memorandum between the companies, Kievgidroinvest and BICIM (PRC). Then on December 18, President Yanukovych wanted to go to Moscow, but the visit was interrupted due to the growing unrest in Kiev at the “Maidan,” which had at that time had no orange color, but rather was a distinct brown with a Russophobe smell to it.
Then the rather infamous events occurred, namely a coup, the illegal seizure of power in Kiev by the fascist thugs and incitement to civil war in the east. And while the terrorists were raging in Kiev terrorists jumping incessantly to prove their racial purity, the Crimean republic quietly separated from Ukraine, declared its independence and was reunited with Russia.
The question of building a deep-water port in Crimea by China has been for a while up in the air due to a change of ownership and problems at the newly-opened-since-1945 “Eastern Front”.
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Round-about Trade Route
Nevertheless, this does not remove the one question: why would China want to trade through the Crimea, if the same thing can be done via the port of Odessa? An explanation from Ukrainian media, (questionable source of information) at the time it was believed that Chinese merchant ships would unload in Crimea Chinese goods and would then be loaded with Ukrainian grain. And what prevented Ukraine from doing the very same, for example in Odessa, was never explained.
Then, as it turned out, they perceived that Ukraine was an ancient part of the Great Silk Road and decided today to restore their “historical significance”. There is a drop of truth in that, but in times of Mongol khanates and its control of the Silk Road, Ukraine did not exist, but Crimea really was one of the marine terminals of the Silk Road. The northern route of the Silk Road went from Central Asia (Samarkand, etc.), skirting the Caspian Sea, passing through Malii Sarai heading in the direction of the Crimea.
Here goods on the coast were accepted by Genoese merchants (from which they amassed huge fortunes by trade with the Hordes) and transported it to the European markets.
China might end up with some bases to protect its energy shipments from the Mideast
On June 19 of this year, Kommersant FM informed the public that a Chinese company, China Communications Construction Company, will build a bridge between Kerch on the Crimean peninsula and Taman in the Krasnodar region. An investor is willing to carry out calculations in rubles and make long-term commitments.
This issue was discussed during the recent visit of Vladimir Putin in Shanghai, this time it was mentioned by the head of Avtodor, Sergei Kelbakh. According to him, Chinese engineers have already visited Kerch, and on June 18, CCC-Company submitted a proposal of the Russian delegation headed by the Minister of Transport, Maxim Sokolov. The Chinese investor proposed two options for the project, a combined road/railway bridge or a tunnel.
It is expected that the Crimean side will be built a 17 km railway and about a 10 km road; next to Taman a 40 km long road and rail system will be built. According to the correspondent of Kommersant FM, Yana Lubnina, a bridge across the Kerch Strait proved to be one of the key themes discussed in Shanghai.
Like the Western United States was developed along the railroads, China and Russia might repeat a new version in the 21rst Century
Obviously, it will connect the future deep-sea port in the Crimea through Krasnodar with the Trans-Siberian railway. Next there are two options: branch to China through Kazakhstan (member of the Customs Union) and a route along the Mongolian border up ending in Vladivostok.
In Shanghai, as we know, a number of decisions relating to increasing the capacity along rail and road routes of China-Russia. Russian Railways and China Railway Corporation have agreed to develop infrastructure on rail and road traffic.
The companies plan to develop the appropriate infrastructure at border crossings and the approaches to them to increase the capacity of railways, as well as increasing the volume of international traffic between countries and in transit through their territories.
From the 18th of June to the 20th, Sochi hosted the International Forum “Strategic Partnership1520”. The forum program was formed around the thesis of the need for market development based on a balance of interests between countries forming the perimeter of the East-West corridor and the three main pillars of the railway industry: transportation, infrastructure and rolling stock.
The agenda of the plenary discussion included the problems of the development of international transport corridors of the EU-1520- Asia-Pacific Region. The railway project developments that were discussed included Vienna – Bratislava – Kosice – Kiev – Moscow – Komsomolsk-on-Amur – Nysh – Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk – Cape Crillon – Wakkanai (Japan); Rotterdam – Moscow – Kazan – Novosibirsk – Krasnoyarsk – Irkutsk – Khabarovsk – Vladivostok – Busan (Republic of Korea).
So, the main problem for today’s industrial leader of humanity, i.e. China, as was already mentioned, is to diversify energy supply routes as well as trade routes for the delivery of finished products. Alas, the policy of the United States, controlling the main maritime trade routes and straits, is now increasingly anti-Chinese and less adequate. Diversification of energy supplies to China in many ways is close to a resolution, as evidenced by the number of agreements in the field of oil and gas that were concluded during Putin’s visit to Shanghai.
As for diversification of trade routes, there are two options in consideration today, the Northern Sea Route and road and rail routes based on the capabilities of the Trans-Siberian Railway. Under these conditions, namely the construction of a deep-water port in the Crimea, the Trans-Siberian project is included as part of the development.
Konstantin Penzev, writer and historian, and a columnist for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
Jim W. Dean was an active editor on VT from 2010-2022. He was involved in operations, development, and writing, plus an active schedule of TV and radio interviews.
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