By Thomas J. Mattingly
[ Editor’s Note: My my, this is moving along faster than most of us expected. We now have expanded peace talks going on with three terrorist-supporting nations: the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey; all in violation of many UN charter and ICC violations, and all making full use of their diplomatic immunity for state-sponsored terrorism.
All three have unofficially declared war on Syria and are responsible primarily for all the death and destruction.
On the other side we have the main three countries really fighting terrorism: Syria, Iran and the Russians, with the NeoCons still trying to hang the state-sponsor of terrorism moniker around Iran’s neck. Public protests against this in the three terrorist-supporting nations has been basically non-existent, a strong symptom of what I consider a fatal disease, and why I labor on at VT.
Pay special attention to what a key role the Russian A2AD (Anti-access area-denial) plays. You will also notice that corporate media kept this earth-shaking item out of their mass reporting. Russia’s move was not only a key tactical move in the Syrian campaign, but put on display to illustrate what one big technological advantage can do.
You might have noticed how little media coverage we have had on the Russian fleet off the coast of Syria. Have you seen any flyover photos of it? Have you read stories about the US Med fleet steaming to the Eastern Med to show they cannot be denied “freedom of the oceans” off Syria. No… you haven’t.
So I remind you again that major league Intel analysis not only includes looking closely at what is visible in front of you, but also, often more important, what is NOT visible that should be.
Of course, US contractors will soon have a plan submitted to counter this A2AD issue, with a $500 billion dollar price tag, and will fly off to a Caribbean vacation to celebrate. The public always gets raped by these guys, coming and going.
As we have been saying at VT for a long time, the most dangerous national security threats we face are right here at home, and little is being done to counter them, as we continue to get sucked up into the divide and conquer political pigeon holes they have created for us… Jim W. Dean ]
As President Vladimir Putin’s Russia-led coalition defeats ISIS and other terrorists in population centers and strategic areas of western Syria, President Barack Obama is working quietly with Putin to eliminate all terrorists and to facilitate a win-win political transition for Syria etc. Even as US rhetoric and actions continue to be bellicose, disjointed and chaotic, the peace process is finally in motion.
At Obama’s request and with Putin’s acceptance, Russia, US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran will continue Syrian peace process talks in Vienna that will lead to a relatively quick cessation of hostilities in Syria and a diplomatic agreement on a “Syrians-decide” political transition. Despite contrary outward appearances and despite treacherous pockets of resistance from US factions and from some US allies, Obama is changing US-Mideast foreign policy in a major way.
In two days, Obama and Putin will continue 5+1-style Syria peace talks in Vienna — with Syria to hold 2016 elections to decide whether “Assad Must Go.” The next step may be – and is – to lift all sanctions to revive and accelerate Syrian, US, Russian and global/national economic recoveries.
The Obama-initiated Vienna peace process parlays (now with Russia, US, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey) show the reluctant readiness of most major powers for a diplomatic deal to end the war in Syria. Although the parties disagree on President Bashar al-Assad’s future, all parties now tacitly agree that Syrians will make this choice. A few days ago, we learned that Assad is ready for Syrians to decide his fate in 2016. What a difference a day makes; or a few days. Especially with the Russia-led coalition winning all major battles in the air and on the ground in Syria.
Former President Jimmy Carter has “back-channeled” Syria negotiations amongst all parties for 3+ years. Despite VT’s and my subjective differences with Carter, what Carter says in his recent OpEd is mostly now happening. Despite Obama’s disingenuous bellicose bluster at the UN, Obama unequivocally said:
“The United States is willing to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict.” After Putin’s UN speech, Obama met privately with Putin and began to do so.
On September 30, Russia began to bomb terrorists in strategic areas of western Syria. US officials continued diversionary bluster in public. Some US factions and US allies then F16-bombed civilian Aleppo electric & water plants (increasing refugee flows as the Russian coalition retakes Aleppo) and provided more weapons for “moderate terrorists.” Such brinksmanship and strategic stupidity only delays a now-inevitable peace – as bad as some factions think that is.
US-led coalition members have done nothing significant to counter the Russia-led coalition in eliminating terrorists and in strengthening Syria and Assad. This enables diplomatic agreement on a political transition, which, all powers say, should and would end the Syrian war. Even as NeoCon, Neo-Liberal US factions and US allies continue anti-Putin and anti-Assad bluster and do stupid stuff to delay peace, what Obama and allied officials are actually doing is hidden in plain sight (e.g., at the UN and in Vienna). In “Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way,” Obama chose Door #3.
One Su-24 shut down Aegis and other US weapons, Comms and tracking systems in the Black Sea in 2014.
Anti-Kiev rebels used similar systems to win in Ukraine, and Russia is now using even-more-capable A2AD (Anti-access area-denial) systems in Syria.
This is a huge, non-aggressive blanket that has been throw over key areas that shifted the balance of power very wisely. It was used to defend those eliminating the terrorist threat from attack by those supporting it.
What the Russia-led Coalition Is Doing
Russia moved military jets, advisers and force protection into Syria in August/September. Despite loud protests from US/allies and Israel, no one did anything effective to counter this move. With Iraq, Iran and Syria, Russia established an intelligence sharing center in US-controlled Iraq.
US-led coalition member Jordan just established an intel sharing center with Russia in Jordan. Jordan and Russia have invited other US coalition members to join and work together.
Iraq just invited Russia to hit ISIS targets in Iraq, and Iran General Soleimani is leading Iraqi fighters against IS-US and other terrorists in Aleppo. US and allies are losing the anti-Assad war in Syria.
Russian and US leaders have talked privately with top leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt and Israel etc. – as well as Iran, China, Iraq, CSTO, BRICS and EU+. Holographically projecting the above communication/action beams onto the chaos that is now the Syrian war (proxy-driven and otherwise) results in a “big picture” beginning to appear.
The peace process is moving along faster than we all expected, and probably because the terrorist supporting coalition sees its field forces getting rolled up fast, where time is not on its side.
With sophisticated Russian electronic systems, Russia has established a 600-kilometer anti-access area-denial (A2AD) “bubble” stretching from Latakia to Aleppo to Incirlik Air Base and into the Mediterranean Sea. Russia can establish a no-fly zone over Syria at any time (which would also shut down US-led coalition weapons systems). US and allies cannot do this.
What Happened to the US-led Coalition
Russia quietly and effectively facilitated A2AD in Ukraine, which in part forced US coalition coup-puppet Poroshenko to announce “de-escalation” (i.e., concede defeat) on March 17.
This effectively ended US-Allied efforts to destabilize Russia with their Ukrainian debacle, anti-Russia sanctions and Syrian stupidity. World War 3 “hopes” then ebbed if not ended, since the US and allies were also slated to lose the anti-Russia-sanctions war and the Syria-regime-change war.
EU nations are growing eager to end anti-Russia sanctions, which are hurting EU, US and others more so than sanctions are hurting Russia. Putin has managed Russian and other perceptions of and reactions to sanctions such that Putin is now more popular than ever in Russia and elsewhere, now polling a 90% approval rating domestically.
If EU and US do not soon end anti-Syria sanctions, then BRICS and allied nations will benefit from Syrian and Iraqi infrastructure development and rebuilding, while EU, US and allies will be shut out. The Russia-led coalition, in tacit partnership with BRICS-aligned nations, has economically and militarily boxed the US and allies. Obama knows this. When peace is inevitable, relax and enjoy it.
Benefits and Implications for US, Syria, Russia, Mid-East, BRICS and US/Russian Allies
In his UN speech, Obama said “The United States is willing to work with any nation, including Russia, to resolve conflict.” If true, then Obama’s declaration has wide-ranging ramifications for US, Mideast and global foreign policies. In addition, if so, then a different world order is dawning.
If or since Obama is also willing to work with the Russia-led coalition and others to eliminate Boko Haram and al-Qaeda-affiliated, Muslim Brotherhood terrorism in Africa, Asia, EU and elsewhere, then Russia, US, NATO, BRICS and others working together can & will eventually win. Maybe soon. If so, then this world will be – and already is – a radically different planet. Shift Happens.
If the old world order is dead; and if the new world order is now something different from what its designers intended it to be, then “The Few” and “The Many” can prosper together.
Syria, Iraq, Mideast, Africa, Asia, Americas, Russia & others have an abundance of gas, oil and coal for energy. We can also develop peaceful nuclear and other “New Energy” technologies to provide cheap and abundant energy. Energy can be and will be inexpensive. Forever.
With cheap energy, all necessary natural resources are abundant – but unevenly distributed. Unemployment is abundance of labor. Some need training. Both Capitalism and Socialism as we knew them are bankrupt or dead. In a world of abundance, all scarcity-based, supply-and-demand, economic equations are obsolete. BRICS/others are designing new systems. Asian, European, American and African nations are defecting to the new economic, monetary and banking systems.
Our world operates with scarcity/austerity-inducing Malthusian banking & currency systems for our national and global economies. If, as and when we switch to asset/productivity-backed banking and currency systems (e.g., “MMT”), then global prosperity will soar. “The Many” will benefit without taking much if anything from “The Few.” With a global abundance of all necessary resources, why would anyone (even religious fanatics) need to rob “The Few” to benefit “The Many”?
Russia, US, EU, Iran, BRICS and others cooperating to achieve peace in Syria and elsewhere has wide-ranging implications for prosperity for almost everyone on our little planet. Are you ready?
Thomas J Mattingly is CEO of an infrastructure development company, former owner of a DC telecom company, former Washington attorney, who is active on 9/11 issues, and worked on MH370 and MH17 with the Malaysians, while working on typhoon and quake recovery in the Philippines. He accompanied VT to Syria as an observer.